Ukraine War Economy Tracker


The number of new vacancies on the market declined in late November after several weeks of growth. The activity of job seekers has been slowly declining since May, with the traditional seasonal drop in activity worsening in December. The number of new CVs is currently lower than at this time last year.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the State Statistics Service has not published unemployment data. The Info Sapiens research agency makes its own estimates of the rate. According to them, the unemployment rate in Ukraine stood at 20% in November 2023. Unemployment rises for the third month in a row. A proxy indicator of poverty – the proportion of people surveyed who have to save on food – was 17.7% in November 2023.

In November, the NBU’s index of business expectations decreased to 49.1 compared to 49.6 in October, remaining below the neutral level of 50 points. This means that negative expectations prevail among the surveyed businesses. According to the NBU, the deterioration in assessments was caused by the ongoing hostilities, increased security risks, disruption of logistics chains (in particular due to the blockade of the Polish border — CES comment), a certain limitation of electricity supply and its rise in price for businesses, tax changes, a narrowing of investment demand, and a shortage of skilled workers. Changes in business expectations are an important subjective indicator of the state of the economy, indicating a gradual recovery in activity or, conversely, a deterioration in the situation.